Prediction evidence

kr

Alex Krüger

@krugermacro

I'm expecting a trend change in crypto today if payrolls data (NFP) comes in soft. If not today, then the trend change will have to wait for the market to price in higher odds of no hike at the July FOMC (Jul/29). The next catalysts for that repricing are the FOMC minutes (Jul/8) and CPI (Jul/14). If CPI comes in hot, the repricing waits until the July FOMC itself. NFP, CPI, the minutes, and FOMC speeches are more important than ever given Warsh's no forward guidance policy. I expect no hike on Jul/29, given the Middle East cease fire and inflation having peaked, but the market is not so sure and needs data to hold its hand until then. A hike would be extremely bearish. Without forward guidance, the market would have a hard time distinguishing between an "insurance hike" and the start of a hiking cycle. The main drag on crypto in the last six weeks has been BTC and Saylor, whose unfortunate actions (using cash reserves to repurchase 2029 converts + making a test bitcoin sale) drove price from 82K to 58K. That risk is now mostly gone, at least for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the main drags on equities and risk assets in general in the last two weeks have been a) the US-Iran cease fire exhausting most of the de-escalation upside, b) a hawkish June FOMC, and c) reignited AI bubble fears (misplaced IMO).