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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Jul 2026, 08:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH is holding better than $BTC now. Bitcoin hit a new yearly low, while Ethereum held above the $1,550 level. But ETH still isn't out of danger yet. Until Ethereum reclaims the $1,700 level, the chances of a new low will go up. https://t.co/K8o2Fh89js

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,580 at 1 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,623 at 2 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 1622.92 / 1580.16 − 1 = +2.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH is holding better than $BTC now.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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