Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Jun 2026, 12:49 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

In reply to · 30 Jun 2026, 12:47 UTC · context given to the AI

GM ☕️ The $BTC June candle closes in 11 hours and it looks like this. What bottom? #Bitcoin https://t.co/75hZdW7A8R

Quarterly also closes in 11 hours and looks just as bad. Most likely some relief in early July, then lower toward my mid-40k target. https://t.co/S5Odk2KFJZ

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $58,301 at 30 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $63,418 at 7 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 63418.3 / 58300.9 − 1 = +8.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -8.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Quarterly also closes in 11 hours and looks just as bad. Most likely some relief in early July, then lower toward my mid-40k target. https://t.co/S5Odk2KFJZ”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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