Prediction evidence

In reply to · 27 Jun 2026, 03:43 UTC · context given to the AI

Health Care has a 100% win rate in the back half of midterm election years. Not 80%. Not 90%. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT. I looked at every midterm year since 2006. Here's how each sector performed from July to December: 1. Health Care $XLV: +8.46% avg, 100% win rate 2. Industrials $XLI: +7.18%, 80% 3. Materials $XLB: +6.71%, 60% 4. Financials $XLF: +6.68%, 80% 5. Cons. Discretionary $XLY: +6.35%, 60% 6. Cons. Staples $XLP: +6.29%, 80% 7. Utilities $XLU: +6.18%, 80% 8. Technology $XLK: +6.08%, 60% 9. Energy $XLE: +3.26%, 60% 10. Real Estate $XLRE: -7.94%, 0% The S&P 500 $SPY averaged: +5.95%. Three things nobody is talking about: 1. Health Care outperforms EVERY sector in midterm H2. Not tech. Not discretionary. Health Care. Five for five. 2. Tech drops to #8. The darling of every other year becomes middle of the pack when midterm volatility kicks in (60% win rate). 3. Real Estate has NEVER been positive Jul-Dec in a midterm year. 0 for 2. Negative every single time. 2026 is a midterm year. The rotation is underway. It always does.