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Published 27 Jun 2026, 13:40 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Benjamin Cowen
@benjamincowen
Quoting · 26 Jun 2026, 15:42 UTC · context given to the AI
While this bear market feels different, Bitcoin is still tracking the average of prior midterm-year bear markets. Structurally, the market typically gets one final countertrend rally sometime in the summer before the final low occurs later in the year. https://t.co/ybrCMHz9WrTime-based capitulation is the way to typically understand Bitcoin bear markets (where they last about 1 year). Sometimes, bear markets can be shorter (like the one from June 2019-Mar 2020), but that required a large event (the pandemic) to accelerate things. I would be willing to pivot my view upon price-based capitulation. Without that, I think time-based capitulation wins.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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