Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Jun 2026, 21:07 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

In reply to · 26 Jun 2026, 20:33 UTC · context given to the AI

Saylor will send $BTC to 16K Tom Lee will send $ETH to $400

@Alejandro_XBT I think bitcoin could go as low as maybe 35K but beyond that I don’t know, brother

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $59,826 at 26 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $60,102 at 27 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 60102.49 / 59826.02 − 1 = +0.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@Alejandro_XBT I think bitcoin could go as low as maybe 35K but beyond that I don’t know, brother”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3