Prediction evidence

In reply to · 26 Jun 2026, 13:49 UTC · context given to the AI

Best explanation for 4 year coming from @JustDeauIt these days. https://t.co/Fxx3oLwh4q Four years is the crypto leverage/deleverage cycle. Why 4 years? You don't need fancy macro reasons, just one big match to lite the tinder - a major reason it gets kicked off is because it's happened 4 times exactly this way - and the only ppl who have survived between cycles are those who respect the cycle. So it's natural selection, survivorship bias: survivors are those who've respected previous 4 years cycles, disrespectooors die out, so the market is composed disproportionately of cycle believers, therefore believers always sell during the third/4th year of a bull, and the cycle continues to reflexively reinforce. Take bitcoin miners (large marginal holders/sellers), miners that don't respect the cycle (by selling during bulls to prep for winter) die during the cold months. The respecters survive, and the lesson is reinforced. Respect or die. A reflexive feedback loop for a reflexive asset class.