Prediction evidence

Quoting · 25 Jun 2026, 09:43 UTC · context given to the AI

The question for $MU coming into last night’s earnings was not how big the memory-chip boom is, but how long it can last. The correct answer appears to be: Longer than anyone originally thought. Perhaps the most important number from last night’s report was 16 -- the number of long-term supply deals Micron has locked in, guaranteeing approximately $100 billion in revenue. That eases fears that the current sky-high prices and margins are unsustainable. Micron said that once all the supply deals are executed, agreements with either fixed prices or price ceilings close to current levels are expected to represent around 40% of its revenue. Meanwhile, the contracts also come with price floors which the company says will enable gross margins "well above" its peak in any past cycle. MU skeptics have long worried that the current memory chip shortage was causing memory chip prices to remain artificially elevated. Last night’s earnings commentary and conference call showed management’s conviction that this AI cycle is uniquely sustainable to keep memory chip prices high through at least 2030. If that’s true, at 9x 2027 Adj EPS of $135, $MU at its pre-mkt indication of $1,220 still looks cheap. Source: Bloomberg