Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jun 2026, 18:55 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

In reply to · 24 Jun 2026, 18:47 UTC · context given to the AI

JUST IN: Bitcoin is now down 35% this year

@Kalshi_Crypto $MSTR dumping Bitcoin dumping Elon net worth now less than $1T Its over lol

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@Kalshi_Crypto $MSTR dumping Bitcoin dumping Elon net worth now less than $1T Its over lol”
Confidence: 71%
Review state: needs review · Low confidence (71%)
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3