Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 20 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC has a new higher low to defend https://t.co/lYZBD4bM6p

$BTC now failed higher low on daily https://t.co/DwJ06GKVZw https://t.co/lPHUTyUMYr

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,018 at 24 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $59,374 at 25 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 59374.19 / 61017.97 − 1 = -2.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC now failed higher low on daily https://t.co/DwJ06GKVZw https://t.co/lPHUTyUMYr”
Confidence: 89%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3