Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jun 2026, 10:59 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:49 UTC

Tone Vays

@ToneVays

In reply to · 24 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC · context given to the AI

@ToneVays Have you bought back in yet?

@HodlMitch NO! Why would I buy back in? We are still at 12 month lows and there is an attack on Bitcoin from Bip110 which will send Bitcoin to under 10k if it succeeds 🤷, even if there is a 1% chance of the attack destroying Bitcoin give me a reason I should hold the asset with SPX at ATH

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,355 at 24 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $61,178 at 25 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 61178 / 62354.94 − 1 = -1.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “We are still at 12 month lows and there is an attack on Bitcoin from Bip110 which will send Bitcoin to under 10k if it succeeds 🤷, even if there is a 1% chance of the attack destroying Bitcoin give me a reason I should hold the asset with SPX at ATH”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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