Prediction evidence

ki

Ki Young Ju

@ki_young_ju

'@Strategy's BTC buying here looks more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst. They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing. In a low-selling-pressure environment, that demand can move price meaningfully. Under current conditions, with selling pressure clearly elevated, it may do little more than defend the range. Bitcoin's realized cap grew by $467B over the past two years, yet price is actually down 1%. Even with hundreds of billions in capital flowing into the market, all that happens is a change of hands. Price doesn't move up. Worse, continuous buying may prevent a deeper market-clearing drawdown, giving more holders the liquidity and confidence to take profits. Normally, Bitcoin cycles reset through crashes, capitulation, weak-hand exits, and whale accumulation. This cycle has been different so far. Bitcoin has moved sideways in a wide range for almost two years. It hasn't been strong enough to confirm a new bull market, but not weak enough to force real capitulation. As a result, weak hands have not been fully flushed out, and strong hands have not re-accumulated aggressively. The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways. Bitcoin is structurally scarce, but scarcity does not make timing irrelevant. Respectfully, what @saylor should consider next: 1/ Pause BTC purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage are restored. 2/ Build a systematic, model-driven purchase framework. “Strategy always buys the local top” has become a real market meme. Buying whenever capital is available is not a strategy. 3/ Create a disciplined selling framework for the next bull market. Partial sales near cycle highs would not mean abandoning Bitcoin. It would deleverage the company, realize shareholder value, and create dry powder to re-accumulate lower. That's not trading. It's risk management.