Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Jun 2026, 15:20 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

That Martini Guy ₿

@MartiniGuyYT

BITCOIN AGGREGATED OPEN INTEREST UPDATE: Bitcoin has dropped from roughly $65,600 to $62,300. But here's the important part. Open interest hasn't collapsed with price. In fact, during large parts of this move down, open interest was actually increasing. That tells us shorts have been opening into the weakness. Over the past 24 hours alone, aggregated open interest has fallen from around $21.3B to $20.5B, but nowhere near enough to suggest we've seen a proper flush. The longs haven't really been wiped out. The shorts are only just getting started. Normally, a bottom comes with aggressive liquidations, a major open interest reset and panic. We're not seeing that. Even zooming out, June has been characterised by declining open interest and weakening participation. The market is showing less interest. The price is still showing too much optimism. Right now, this doesn't look like a market building a bottom. It looks like a market still searching for one.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,404 at 23 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $60,177 at 24 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 60176.73 / 62404.01 − 1 = -3.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“BITCOIN HEATMAP WARNING!! THE MARKET IS HEATING UP!! INCREASING MY $12,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT Watch Now 👇 https://t.co/m2Hc1egInf https://t.co/icAw3MYM63”Repeat23 Jun 2026, 18:12 UTC
“BITCOIN HEATMAP WARNING!! THE MARKET IS HEATING UP!! INCREASING MY $12,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT Watch Now 👇 https://t.co/m2Hc1egInf”Repeat23 Jun 2026, 18:12 UTC
“BITCOIN HEATMAP WARNING!! THE MARKET IS HEATING UP!! INCREASING MY $12,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT Watch Now 👇 https://t.co/m2Hc1egInf https://t.co/oNyCUXR3HX”Repeat23 Jun 2026, 18:12 UTC
“The more I look at these heatmaps, the more I think people are focusing on the wrong levels. Everyone is looking at the liquidity above price and calling for $66k. But there is still a huge amount of liquidity sitting underneath us. On both the 24-hour and 48-hour heatmaps, the biggest clusters are still building below the current price. That matters. Because markets tend to move towards liquidity. Not away from it. Right now Bitcoin is sitting directly between two liquidity zones. There is liquidity above. There is liquidity below. The difference is that a lot of the upside liquidity has already been worked through over the past few weeks. A lot of the downside liquidity hasn't. That's why I still lean bearish. Until Bitcoin starts reclaiming higher levels and proving otherwise, I think the path of least resistance remains lower. Stairs up. Escalator down. We've seen this movie before.”

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “BITCOIN AGGREGATED OPEN INTEREST UPDATE:”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

“Something interesting is happening here. Bitcoin is down nearly 5%. The Nasdaq just got hit. Risk assets are selling off. But we're still not seeing the kind of panic you'd normally expect. Open interest has come down, but not enough. Funding hasn't completely reset. And spot selling still isn't showing signs of full capitulation. That's why I'm not convinced we've seen the final move yet. Real bottoms usually happen when everyone gives up. Right now it still feels like too many people are trying to buy the dip.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 05:26 UTC

“A move to $59k would not surprise me here. Not because of the chart. Because of the positioning. Open interest has come down, but not enough. Dip buyers are still showing up. And every small bounce is still being treated as confirmation that the bottom is in. That's usually not how major lows form. Major lows happen when buyers disappear, not when they get more confident. Until we see a proper reset in positioning and a stronger reaction from spot demand, I think the market remains vulnerable to another leg lower. The risk isn't that Bitcoin is weak. The risk is that too many people still think it isn't.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 05:49 UTC

“BlackRock sold 2,840 Bitcoin yesterday. The day before that, they sold 2,720 Bitcoin. So BlackRock has clearly got coins to sell this week. At the same time, Fidelity and ARK are buying less. On Monday they were buying around 1,000 Bitcoin each. Yesterday they bought less than half of that. Trend is your friend. BlackRock's trend is selling more. Fidelity and ARK's trend is buying less. That's not the combination you want to see if you're looking for a strong move higher. The total ETF flow yesterday came in at -1,780 BTC. That's over $100 million leaving the market. And investors generally don't wake up one morning and decide to completely change their view five minutes later. If they're reducing exposure here, it's because they think there is more risk ahead. For me, this just adds to the same picture we've been building for days. The biggest seller is getting more aggressive. The biggest buyers are getting weaker. And tomorrow we get PCE inflation data. Not exactly the backdrop I'd want if I'm trying to defend $62k.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 06:15 UTC

“Bitcoin exchange balances increased again yesterday by roughly 2,000 BTC. USDT balances barely moved. That's not what you want to see if you're expecting a sustained move higher. If fresh money was stepping in, stablecoin balances would be rising. Instead, USDT has been trending lower while more Bitcoin continues finding its way onto exchanges. Add that to BlackRock's recent selling and the picture becomes pretty clear. The volatility chart is telling a similar story. The last time volatility started rolling over from these levels, Bitcoin followed shortly after. We're seeing the same setup develop again. Meanwhile every rally keeps running into sellers. Price pushes higher. Momentum fades. Sellers step back in. For now, the flow of capital still looks more defensive than aggressive.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 08:15 UTC

“Bitcoin open interest is telling a very different story to what most people are seeing on the chart. Since the long liquidation event we highlighted yesterday, open interest has continued rising while price has gone nowhere. In fact, price has actually drifted lower. That's bearish divergence. We saw some short profit taking a few hours ago, but since then open interest and price have both been falling. That points towards longs closing positions. Either taking losses. Or taking profit. The result is the same. Longs are leaving. The bigger problem is that a lot of those longs were opened last week without meaningful spot buying behind them. If Bitcoin keeps chopping around here, those positions come under pressure. And when futures longs start getting uncomfortable, they don't usually hold all the way down. They close. That's why I'm still only interested in one side of this market right now. For me, nothing has changed. Until we see a move backed by both spot buying and futures buying, the momentum still points in one direction.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 08:48 UTC

“That didn't last long... Bitcoin has now lost the $62,200 level. That's not what buyers wanted to see. Earlier, Bitcoin bounced from support and looked like it might make a move back towards $63,500. Instead, sellers stepped back in and support has given way. The important thing now is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $62,200 quickly. If it can't, then the liquidity sitting below starts becoming much more attractive. From my perspective, this fits the same picture we've been building all week. Weak ETF flows. Weak stablecoin inflows. Rising exchange balances. And now support starting to crack. For bulls, the job is simple. Get back above $62,200. If not, I'd be looking lower towards $59,000”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 13:32 UTC

“Bitcoin is now below $61,000. A few hours ago we were talking about whether $62,200 could hold. It didn't. Then we were talking about whether buyers could reclaim it. They couldn't. At some point you have to stop arguing with the chart. Right now, it's looking increasingly likely that Bitcoin is heading towards the $59,000 region. That's the next area on the chart that really stands out to me. The thing that concerns me is how weak every bounce has been. Price keeps trying to rally. Sellers keep showing up. Until we see a genuine shift in momentum, I struggle to see why the market suddenly starts moving higher from here. For now, $59,000 remains the level I'm watching.”Repeat24 Jun 2026, 15:17 UTC

Baseline price

$62,404

Evaluation price

$60,177

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

11 Nov 2026, 00:14 UTC

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