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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Jun 2026, 22:58 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

The London Whale cost JPMorgan $6.2B, one of the biggest losing trades ever recorded. $MSTR is already sitting on a $10B paper loss on its Bitcoin trade. But by the time it's closed out, @Saylor will shatter the record and book the biggest losing trade in history.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,890 at 22 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,510 at 23 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC.
r = 62509.96 / 63889.99 − 1 = -2.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$MSTR is already sitting on a $10B paper loss on its Bitcoin trade.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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