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Published 20 Jun 2026, 21:15 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC
James Lavish
@jameslavish
In reply to · 20 Jun 2026, 18:44 UTC · context given to the AI
Honestly, I think there’s going to be a major pullback or crisis in the markets that will justify the big print, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin will drop to 30k–40k. Bitcoin often turns the corner before everything else, in both directions. DCA, perhaps? HBU @LawrenceLepard, @jameslavish, @dotkrueger, @Giovann35084111 @scottmelker ??I agree. We all know that the Treasury, and hence the Fed, is trapped here and cannot sustain a long, drawn-out recession or downturn in the markets, especially a lockup in credit or bond markets. Even a 2019-style repo crisis would send the Fed into emergency action almost immediately. And as for Bitcoin, it's clearly been uncorrelated to everything lately. Perhaps bad news on the front end, but like you said, it will likely find bottom before everything else, in my opinion.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63721.49 / 63937.01 − 1 = -0.3%d × r = -0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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