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Published 18 Jun 2026, 22:04 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC
Justin Bons
@Justin_Bons
The security budget has declined over the last 2 halvenings BTC's security budget is lower than it was 6 years ago! It has been falling exactly as I predicted it would over the last decade Even warning against changing BTC's original design (blocksize) for this reason in 2015 The point is, BTC is exactly on track for this collapse to happen in 6 to 10 years (2-3 halvenings) as I had predicted from the start All while we live in a world where crypto is gaining massive fee revenue, allowing us to sustain highly secure, scarce & decentralized systems Relatively speaking, none of that revenue is flowing back to BTC. BTC today is not the most secure, scarce, or decentralized. However, that will only accelerate until it becomes too obvious for the world to ignoreView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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