Published 18 Jun 2026, 17:17 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC
₿IRB
@crypto_birb
Quoting · 18 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC · context given to the AI
Three days ago I posted this BTC 12H chart warning. Now Bitcoin is struggling to hold $63,800. That's a -5.27% drop from the zone I flagged. Here's what I said would happen - and what actually happened: ⇝ Said: "Resistance stack overhead: 12H Trailer at 66,414, HTF Trailer at 67,946" BTC topped at 67,219 - inside the resistance zone exactly as flagged. ⇝ Said: "Each leg up since cycle top printed a lower high" 67,219 stays below all prior bounce highs. Pattern intact. ⇝ Said: "Current rise had no serious momentum breakout" No volume expansion. Mean reversion delivered. ⇝ Said: "BTC could perhaps push another $1,000 to test 68K. But needs to close daily above 68K with expansion." Pushed to 67,219. Failed to close above 68K. No expansion. Reversed. Corrective chop expired exactly when I said it would. This is what CMT knowledge looks like. Sometimes it feels like running on cheat codes. How is it possible I keep calling tops and bottoms accurately time after time? It's simple. When CT is calling for new highs, I rather watch charts and focus on facts instead not uneducated opinions. I've been doing the same past 10 years and it works. More importantly than being right - I'm making money. Ignore the noise🐑 Got it?In reply to · 15 Jun 2026, 12:21 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin bounced 11% in a week. But major wall sits right above current price. I've checked every leg of this move. Here's what I found: ⇝ The bounce started at prior cycle accumulation territory near 59,000 ⇝ Resistance stack overhead: 12H Trailer at 66,414, HTF Trailer at 67,946 ⇝ The full BTC structure remains under the bear regime ⇝ Each leg up since cycle top printed a lower high ⇝ Current rise had no serious momentum breakout So what does this look like in CMT terms? A minor relief rally inside Phase 2 distribution. The standard shape of a mechanical squeeze on overcrowded shorts. As of now, it looks like a typical corrective tide of a larger down move after breaking new long-term lows. What does it mean? If you're long, I'd consider taking profits in this cluster. $BTC could perhaps push another $1,000 to test 68k. But needs to close daily above 68k with expansion. Volume/volatility spike with momentum breakout to establish a trustworthy impulse. Until then, be careful. This corrective chop can expire any time now. Got it?OH NO WHO COULD HAVE EXPECTED IT https://t.co/G4p96BBi70View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63135.45 / 62512.67 − 1 = +1.0%d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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