Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 Jun 2026, 16:55 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 17 Jun 2026, 15:30 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 60% chance Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/o2dIrVE8NS

$BTC has always bottomed below its "Realized Price." This means $50,000 Bitcoin will happen before a pump above $100,000. https://t.co/ySdPdcrS3E https://t.co/4WU1YJ9OBs

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“$BTC failed to reclaim the $67,000-$68,000 zone. Now, the key level to hold is $64,000-$65,000. If Bitcoin loses this, it'll end up giving most of its short-term gain back. https://t.co/uI6P5k8oyD”Repeat17 Jun 2026, 08:30 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC has always bottomed below its "Realized Price."”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record