Prediction evidence

Quoting · 9 Jun 2026, 13:01 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin is testing 200W SMA. What is it and why does everyone keep mentioning it? Let me explain. It is the average of every weekly close for the last 200 weeks - approximately 4 years. It's always rising because Bitcoin's price history is heavily skewed to the upside by parabolic bull runs. Since it has 4 years lag, it's not sensitive to cyclical bull or bear markets. That's why 2026 bear will only be reflected in 2030. So if your favourite influencer claims Bitcoin can't fall below 200-week trend because it's rising, they are wrong. And 4 years late. If you use 4-year lagged indicator for future predictions, you are basically stuck in previous cycle. Currently 200-week SMA is at 62,023. It can temporarily act as psychological support. But smart investors don't use it to time entries or exits. What is it telling us now? We're currently testing this area after breaking below it to near bear market lows. For anyone with 4-year investment horizon, it's a good buying opportunity when Bitcoin falls & stays below it. It typically marks depression phase of market cycle. We're not there yet. Which means depression is YET to come. Bottom line: prepare for further declines. Makes sense?

In reply to · 16 Jun 2026, 17:35 UTC · context given to the AI

@crypto_birb Do you give any weight to the steadily rising 200 week SMA, where bitcoin is finding support? A rising 200 week SMA is a sign of a secular bull, and it is where algos and institutional bids may step in and provide support in a cyclical bear.