Published 16 Jun 2026, 01:09 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC
dave the wave🌊🌓
@davthewave
In reply to · 16 Jun 2026, 01:07 UTC · context given to the AI
Latest #btc article just published. Make sure to sign up for the blurbs or subscribe for full access to the article and the complete archive. "BTC and MACD Updates Signaling the Low is In" https://t.co/0ulR7axYuXSnippet: "Though I usually focus more on the weekly MACD, I find this chart of interest. To find the daily MACD so low as recently, we have to go all the way back to the major cyclical correction of 2022. This suggests that we are likewise repeating that pattern. Also of interest is the three swings lower in the course of that correction… something we see mirrored here in 2026, and more concisely in a more mature market. If the pattern continues to play out, the bottom is in. ... On the weekly chart, we see the same pattern in a more subdued manner, once again signaling a maturing more technical market in my opinion. The MACD here does not reach as low due to reducing macro volatility in price, or, in other words, increasing price stability. Keep in mind that along the lines of the LGC model [Logarithmic Growth Curve], a process of price discovery is unfolding. In this scenario, overall price increase while remaining volatile to both sides, will itself increasingly plateau as BTC [an alternative currency/ digital gold] is capitalized by the market. This eventual price discovery/ capitalization is also why the MACD on higher time frames should not swing as high or low. The chart above is so far confirming the theory/ prediction. The theory has performed. But Dave. you say, what about when you zoom out on the weekly chart? Has not the weekly MACD reached the same depth on previous cycles?"View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 65870.61 / 66304.17 − 1 = -0.7%d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
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