Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Jun 2026, 13:51 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 15 Jun 2026, 13:29 UTC · context given to the AI

Solid $ETH pump.

But let me say it again: I'd love to be fully bullish, but I don't think the bottom is in yet 😂. Don't go all in. https://t.co/GGhBBxMpyU

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,813 at 15 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,796 at 16 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 1796.08 / 1812.91 − 1 = -0.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “But let me say it again: I'd love to be fully bullish, but I don't think the bottom is in yet 😂. Don't go all in. https://t.co/GGhBBxMpyU”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3