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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 13 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Bitcoin's bottom structure is repeating. 2021-2022 setup: 3 lower highs. Lost support at $30K. Failed bounce attempt. Then capitulation to $15K. 2025-2026 setup: 3 lower highs. Lost support at $77K. Bounce attempt loading. Then capitulation to $48-55K. Same chart. Same structure. Same script. The bounce is not the bottom. It's the retest before the real flush.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,258 at 13 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,986 at 14 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 63986.19 / 64258.02 − 1 = -0.4%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin's bottom structure is repeating.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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