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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 9 Jun 2026, 14:49 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Byzantine General

@ByzGeneral

Damn $BTC is already rolling over, we don't even get a serious relief bounce. There are some bids around 59k-60k though. Let's see if demand kicks in there. https://t.co/MAAVgAN1nV

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,504 at 9 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,146 at 10 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 62146.06 / 61503.96 − 1 = +1.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Damn $BTC is already rolling over, we don't even get a serious relief bounce.”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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