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Published 8 Jun 2026, 18:47 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC
Gaijin
@Gaijin165
In reply to · 8 Jun 2026, 18:46 UTC · context given to the AI
Why the bottom for $BTC is not in Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders Currently it is 53.6k Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price 2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5 2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300 2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k 2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k 58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming? My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 20-30% In other words → 37.5k-42.8k Bookmark this because I know I'm right@follis_ People calling bottom for $BTC around this zone is really funnyView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 61729.36 / 63442.06 − 1 = -2.7%d × r = +2.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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