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Leaderboard / @randgroup / 2063953056467697926:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Jun 2026, 11:55 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

ra

Rand Group

@randgroup

@enzoinsidee @QuintenFrancois Bottom line... dont bet against Bitcoin

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,430 at 8 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,673 at 9 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 62673.29 / 63429.84 − 1 = -1.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “dont bet against Bitcoin”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$63,430

Evaluation price

$62,673

Move

-1.2%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

11 Nov 2026, 05:16 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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