Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Jun 2026, 15:04 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Benjamin Cowen

@benjamincowen

In reply to · 6 Jun 2026, 10:17 UTC · context given to the AI

@benjamincowen “Swept the low”? My brother in Christ, this isn’t a sweep.

@PrivacyForUsAll Well so far it is, but I do think btc will eventually go lower

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $60,748 at 6 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,071 at 7 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 62071.01 / 60748.14 − 1 = +2.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@PrivacyForUsAll Well so far it is, but I do think btc will eventually go lower”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3