Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $MANIFEST price at or after publication, $0.03326 at 5 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $0.02986 at 5 Jun 2026, 21:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.02986224147888603 / 0.03325655467131905 − 1 = -10.2%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -10.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology