Loading…
Published 4 Jun 2026, 20:56 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Benjamin Cowen
@benjamincowen
In reply to · 4 Jun 2026, 20:44 UTC · context given to the AI
Not the same thing. The narrative with the S&P is set-it-and-forget-it for the most part. Long-term retirement allocation, etc. To the extent there is any cyclical pattern with the S&P 500, the prevalence of that narrative is minor in comparison to Bitcoin, where this 4-year clockwork "sell it and buy back a year later" narrative is much more pervasive and much more of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The two aren't equivalent, and I do think it's less than ideal for everyone to assume the move is to sell Bitcoin every 4 years rather than invest and allocate for the long term. This narrative affects allocators of all sizes.How is the pattern more prevalent for BTC? SPX has gone through four year cycles for decades before BTC was even created. No one is saying you have to sell anything. We are just saying to expect major lows to occur in BTC approximately every four years. You are saying believing in that is "anti-BTC" People who believe stocks bottom every 4 years are not "anti-stocks." Markets are allowed to go down sometimes. I hope you reconsider your view. Especially considering that you told people that my views were dead wrong coming into this year. BTC did not follow the ISM. It did not follow M2. It did not follow any of that stuff. How long until we can admit maybe the four year cycle has some validity? If it ever breaks, it would probably be for a bad reason, not a good reason. So I would say to root against the 4 year cycle would actually be more detrimental than rooting for it.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction