Prediction evidence

Ki

Killa

@KillaXBT

"OMG Killa, that's a 50% drop as invalidation!" Yes. It is. But what people keep ignoring is the other side of the equation. My target is an extremely modest $160K BTC. From my entry, that's roughly a 150% move higher. So the risk/reward is approximately 3:1. If you're trading on high leverage, then obviously this setup is terrible for you. A 50% invalidation and high leverage do not mix. That's not how I'm approaching this trade. You have two ways to deal with that: Use low leverage. Or Continuously add margin to defend the position. I have zero interest in option #2. That's never been my style. Instead, I'll be using extremely low leverage, which allows me to give the position room to breathe without constantly managing margin requirements. I already hold enough spot BTC. The reason I want a long position is because it gives me the ability to delta-neutral hedge when BTC starts trending higher again. Let's say we get rejected at $84K on the first attempt. Or maybe $100K. Maybe $120K. With a leveraged position already open, I can hedge it, go delta neutral, preserve profits, eliminate directional risk on the position, and continue holding without stress. Funding fees were also part of my calculations. Looking at the 1Y average, funding costs are roughly 7-8% annually. During most of the bull market, funding has actually been more negative than positive. We only saw notable positive flips around $74K, $108K, and $124K a handful of times. The majority of the rally wasn't dominated by positive funding at all. So I'm not telling anyone to follow me. I'm not telling anyone to copy my trades. I'm simply explaining what I'm doing, why I'm doing it, and how I'm approaching this market. You're free to analyze the market your own way and come to your own conclusions.