Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Jun 2026, 16:03 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC

Layah Heilpern

@LayahHeilpern

Bet No if you think I'm right, Bet Yes if you think BTC won't drop that much: https://t.co/KiE80sh8rr

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bet Yes if you think BTC won't drop that much: https://t.co/KiE80sh8rr”
Confidence: 39%
Review state: needs review · Low confidence (39%)
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3