Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Jun 2026, 12:46 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Benjamin Cowen

@benjamincowen

@mcof92 btc could certainly rally again before the final low, but i doubt it would be to a new high

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,698 at 4 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $61,912 at 5 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 61912.41 / 63697.99 − 1 = -2.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@mcof92 btc could certainly rally again before the final low, but i doubt it would be to a new high”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3