Prediction evidence

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Ki Young Ju

@ki_young_ju

This distribution phase feels like a massive change of hands. Bitcoin investors' average cost basis is around $53K. Historically, bear markets ended only after the price fell below the realized price. I thought that level would be hard to revisit, given institutional inflows and MSTR barely selling any BTC. But current price action suggests unusually strong sell pressure. • Since Jan 2023, MSTR bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing 711,174 BTC from circulation. • Since BTC was also $63K in Mar 2024, ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC and MSTR bought 650,706 BTC. That is 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price is back at the same level. • For context, exchange reserves are around 2.7M BTC, and Satoshi is estimated to hold around 1M BTC. More BTC than Satoshi’s stack, nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed, and price is still back at the same level.