Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,673 at 3 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $62,099 at 4 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC.
3. r = 62099.03 / 65672.75 − 1 = -5.4%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -5.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology