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Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jun 2026, 20:51 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

Quoting · 17 Apr 2025, 19:28 UTC · context given to the AI

The rumors are true. I'm speaking at the Bitcoin conference in May. I agreed to speak for the same reason I spoke at the Mortgage Bankers conference in Las Vegas in 2006. I'm speaking to tell conference-goers the party is over and give them an alternative. https://t.co/PL0912GSb7

When I spoke at that conference, Bitcoin was trading near $110,000. I said the conference likely represented the peak of the mania. A blow-off top. So far, it looks like I was right. Attendees who followed my advice and sold their Bitcoin are certainly glad that they did. https://t.co/TBoXoVFRpn

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“$STRC is down to $94.85, putting the current yield at 12.12%. The lower the price falls, the higher $MSTR will have to increase the dividend to bring the share price back up to $100. That means MSTR will run out of cash much sooner, pulling forward Bitcoin sales to make payments.”Repeat3 Jun 2026, 19:24 UTC
“@krisspax @saylor I guess you can just wait until Bitcoin is back below $20,000. Then the dates will be irrelevent.”Repeat3 Jun 2026, 23:13 UTC
“The Bitcoin chart looks bad, but check out the rest of crypto. The Ethereum chart looks worse, and the Solana chart looks worse than that. Everything looks like it's about to implode. So far, the selling has been very orderly with no signs of panic. That will likely change soon.”Repeat4 Jun 2026, 01:16 UTC
“It looks like the correction in tech stocks has finally begun. That's bad news for Bitcoin, as the tech rally was its main support. As tech stocks sell off, Bitcoin should crash. Gold will likely head in the opposite direction, as investors rush to buy a true safe-haven asset.”

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “When I spoke at that conference, Bitcoin was trading near $110,000.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record