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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

I OPENED A MASSIVE BITCOIN TRADE AT EL CLASSICO.... (More pain is coming) Watch here: While the world watched El Clásico in Barcelona, I quietly opened one of the biggest Bitcoin short positions I've ever placed. This video reveals everything: The exact entry and why I believe more pain is coming for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $66,752 at 3 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $62,146 at 10 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 62146.06 / 66752 − 1 = -6.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +6.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “I OPENED A MASSIVE BITCOIN TRADE AT EL CLASSICO....”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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