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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jun 2026, 13:05 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Jelle

@CryptoJelleNL

Quoting · 12 May 2026, 12:35 UTC · context given to the AI

Every bitcoin:native bear market has a couple of relief rallies. Wouldn't surprise me if this is another one of those times. Summer seasonality kicks in soon. https://t.co/jRckhfNgeD

It indeed was another one of those times. $BTC retraced the entire relief rally. Bulls really want to see the current levels hold, or we're in for another correction wave. https://t.co/Y0YG0C6tZx https://t.co/4oHBDAfdTQ

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $66,786 at 3 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,173 at 4 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 64173.18 / 66786.24 − 1 = -3.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC retraced the entire relief rally.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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