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Leaderboard / @travladd / 2062093990049231295:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jun 2026, 08:48 UTC · fetched 21 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC

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Travladd 𐤊

@travladd

Bitcoin dominance down around 2% over the last 8 days. $BTC Around 30 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies in green even with Bitcoin down 4%. Most altcoins barely moved on the way to $120,000 Bitcoin, maybe it’s catch up time before a new Bitcoin ATH. https://t.co/J77mybYHYw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $66,928 at 3 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,540 at 4 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 63539.98 / 66927.65 − 1 = -5.06%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -5.06% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin dominance down around 2% over the last 8 days.”
Confidence: 80%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$66,928

Evaluation price

$63,540

Move

-5.06%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 20:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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