Prediction evidence

kr

Alex Krüger

@krugermacro

I think Strategy will first lower the 1.22 threshold (self imposed) and issue MSTR common. BTC goes up on that, as it relieves the need to sell BTC to cover the STRC dividend (now down to ~5 months coverage). The magnitude of the relief depends on how much they can raise that way, given mNAV. If the numbers fall short Strategy may still be forced to sell BTC, in size this time. They basically need to choose if to sacrifice MSTR, STRC or BTC (or all). That would solve the pressing STRC issue, at least temporarily. All assuming Strategy did not already raise cash by selling BTC this week (doubtful). Then Strategy still has significant debt to roll-over in 2028 ... which is very doable. But the market may decide to chase Saylor and force a credit event. Everybody is willing to lend you money, when you don't need it. The downside if things go wrong is large. BTC is now fully linked to Strategy's creditworthiness. The path ahead for BTC is uncertain, but there's a very fat left tail. Many crypto natives on the sidelines have been expressing interest to buy only at 50K. I have no position and for the first time in a while I'm not even considering buying the dip. There are better assets to allocate capital to.