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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Jun 2026, 13:52 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Byzantine General

@ByzGeneral

More and more long liqs coming in. You guys are gonna have to stop trying to catch this knife with high leverage if you actually want $BTC to bottom out. I'm looking at $65k for a strong bounce (hopefully). https://t.co/AcPgeVtxCh

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $68,678 at 2 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $66,786 at 3 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 66786.24 / 68678.24 − 1 = -2.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “You guys are gonna have to stop trying to catch this knife with high leverage if you actually want $BTC to bottom out.”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

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