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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Jun 2026, 08:40 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH has failed to reclaim the $2,000 level. The good thing is Ethereum is holding better than Bitcoin, which means ETH could bounce hard during any reversal. https://t.co/GBF6ulZs4Q

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,976 at 2 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,877 at 3 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 1877.28 / 1976.21 − 1 = -5.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -5.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH has failed to reclaim the $2,000 level.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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