Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Jun 2026, 16:58 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 1 Jun 2026, 15:19 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC lowest 4H RSI since February 5th https://t.co/qLCxNrIdtZ

$BTC low should be in for a little bit here https://t.co/gKO7s1XRrL https://t.co/j6Bd4Oc0SV

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $71,445 at 1 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $67,296 at 2 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 67296.18 / 71445.07 − 1 = -5.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -5.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC low should be in for a little bit here https://t.co/gKO7s1XRrL https://t.co/j6Bd4Oc0SV”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3