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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

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Leaderboard / @ShardiB2 / 2061437842639794271:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Jun 2026, 13:20 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Sh

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

$BTC Saylor selling on top of a bad chart.... not great Looks like my 65k target may hit https://t.co/AqQbIQ5FmB

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $71,585 at 1 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $68,678 at 2 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 68678.24 / 71584.51 − 1 = -4.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +4.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$71,585

Evaluation price

$68,678

Move

-4.1%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 17:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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