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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Jun 2026, 08:52 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

That Martini Guy ₿

@MartiniGuyYT

In reply to · 1 Jun 2026, 08:20 UTC · context given to the AI

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says "the release of our frozen funds is an absolute and non-negotiable demand" for any deal with US.

@BRICSinfo Once the deal is finalised, Bitcoin and crypto will go absolutely parabolic! 🚀

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $72,801 at 1 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $69,711 at 2 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 69710.92 / 72800.76 − 1 = -4.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -4.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@BRICSinfo Once the deal is finalised, Bitcoin and crypto will go absolutely parabolic!”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3