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Published 1 Jun 2026, 05:13 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Benjamin Cowen
@benjamincowen
Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric brownian motion. ..but.. if i had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce. But after the bounce is over (likely a few days to a week or so), I do think BTC will head back to the lows from February 2026. If I'm wrong about BTC revisiting the lows from February, I will quote tweet this and simply say "I was wrong." And then I will let every bull dunk away.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 62725 / 73255.77 − 1 = -14.4%d × r = +14.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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