Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 May 2026, 15:56 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 31 May 2026, 15:42 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 60% chance Bitcoin hits $60,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/J7SGvCh0la

$BTC move above $80,000 was a classic liquidity grab. Now, ETFs are selling while the US-Iran deal keeps getting delayed. If Bitcoin loses the $70,000 level, a drop to $60,000 could be next. https://t.co/wKfRLh9Cth https://t.co/xhNwFD6hhl

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $73,543 at 31 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $70,992 at 1 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 70992.1 / 73542.76 − 1 = -3.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC move above $80,000 was a classic liquidity grab.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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