Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 May 2026, 00:56 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

Gaijin

@Gaijin165

In reply to · 31 May 2026, 00:35 UTC · context given to the AI

Is ETH officially f*cked? Let us break it down in this video. https://t.co/rwFt8u360J

@LarkDavis $ETH is the strongest project out there for a reason, It will bounce back it always does

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,024 at 31 May 2026, 01:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,013 at 1 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC.
r = 2012.61 / 2023.93 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@LarkDavis $ETH is the strongest project out there for a reason, It will bounce back it always does”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3