Published 30 May 2026, 14:35 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
Killa
@KillaXBT
Quoting · 27 May 2026, 22:30 UTC · context given to the AI
One of the longest swing short I’ve held on $BTC so far. 41 days of nothing but chop and sideways price action, but it’s finally starting to move in the intended direction. Entry was a bit early, but the position is now in profit. Looks like the hedge long will likely get stopped out. Initial build zone was 76.3K–74.9K with the SL just below 74K. There’s a strong chance that level gets taken this week or next. Regardless, I’m still holding the main swing short. Definitely hasn’t been an easy hold, but sticking to a plan matters more than reacting emotionally to every move. 73.6K remains a very important level. If we lose that area cleanly, I think 71K becomes likely. In that scenario, I’ll look to close 25% of the swing short from 77.8K. Right now we’re still at a critical point structurally. This retest needs to hold, otherwise it’s likely just a failed swing setup and continuation lower. Big takeaway from this trade, having a plan is one thing, but actually sticking to it through difficult price action is what matters.$BTC Nothing much to update regarding the swing short position. I'm still holding 50% of the original size, as mentioned previously. I closed 50% at 80K to reduce risk in case my thesis was wrong. Given the current retrace back into the range, I think there's a good chance we test 70K next month. If price continues to hold below 79K, this is increasingly looking like a failed breakout that has retraced back into the range after deviating above the previous highs. We can test LTF S/R levels like 75-76K but ideally bulls need to flip the 79K level to be "bullish" again. Additionally, I expect SP500 to experience a pullback at some point this year, which could add further weakness to BTC. That's another factor I'm monitoring closely. At 70.8K, I plan to close another 25% of the short position and leave the remaining 25% open until the final take profit target is reached.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 59352.32 / 73822.02 − 1 = -19.6%d × r = +19.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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