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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 May 2026, 08:36 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$USDT MCap went down $1,150,000,000 over the past 24 hours. Last time this happened, $BTC had a little pump before nuking to new lows. https://t.co/g1PiYXgmjS

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $73,418 at 30 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $73,835 at 31 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 73835.13 / 73417.92 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Last time this happened, $BTC had a little pump before nuking to new lows.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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