Published 30 May 2026, 08:20 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC
swarmik
@swarmister
Quoting · 9 May 2026, 14:28 UTC · context given to the AI
What kind of bull market and reversal are we talking about? Okay. Take any altcoin. Whether it’s $STRK, $ARB, or any other piece of crap where some idiot found a “tech stack” or a “revolution.” All this shit has the exact same chart. Downward, and then even further downward. $ZRO, $DYDX, projects that have been around for several years, look exactly the same. There are also those that simply crashed to the bottom from day one. $BLUR, $SUI, and all the rest of that junk. All this time, project teams and local market makers were peddling their tech to idiots and taking their money. And the suckers were left with a pile of shitty tokens in their wallets. If you suddenly get the idea that the market is about to make a sharp turnaround and start rising, ask yourself a simple question. All this time, this whole garbage heap was being sold to someone. These tokens haven’t been in the teams’ wallets for a long time. They’re sitting with the people who got stuck up to their ears. And if growth starts, this whole mass of suckers will hinder the upward movement. They’ll need to get out of their hole. Everywhere you look, there’s a crowd of people stuck. And letting them out, in my opinion, is just illogical. I’ve been voicing one simple idea for a long time. BTC can be worth whatever it wants, and so can Ether. But all this crap is going to keep rolling downhill. The people who came looking for a “life-changing” opportunity a couple of years ago weren’t buying Bitcoin or Solana. They were buying altcoins that were advertised by other suckers just like them. Check out YouTube. There are tons of stories about how people who had never had anything to do with crypto in their lives lost everything. Go to Telegram search and type “averaging down” or “buying more.” And see how many people keep jumping on the next scam in the hope that at least something will rebound lmaoYour thesis on buying a particular asset has already crossed the minds of those who are currently down 70–90%, or perhaps even 99%. Of course, I think the best times to buy, or rather to ‘invest’, if you can even call it that in crypto… it’s more like speculation. Overall, I think the best time is August through November. I’m not expecting a repeat of 10.10, but I think the price of most assets will drop by at least 30–50%. (I want to buy Solana at $56 when I see it.) However, understand that even if you see prices as potentially attractive right now, or if a project has broken through some imaginary resistance level… that doesn’t mean it won’t drop. Yes, prices may rise in the next 1–2 weeks, and it will seem like they’ve risen sharply. But just remember that for most projects, even the highest-quality ones, to reach their peaks, they need to achieve 10x, 20x, or 50x growth. and there are always idiots who bought at the top. Think about who might be working against the growth: those poor people who simply bought before you, most likely with the exact same arguments you have in your head. Remember that these charts I’m referencing are the very embodiment of crypto. I’m not leaving the party, and I’m not even thinking about it. I love the volatility; I need it. But I don’t view the last two years of crypto as an investment in something useful. In my view, utility currently makes sense in projects that indirectly (without a direct goal) help developers take money from retail investors. For example, Hyperliquid, but simply because it’s an exchange and the best one right now, and it’s also VERY necessary for Trump along with TradeXYZ; both tools were literally essential for him. Think about it.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 82.67 / 82.11 − 1 = +0.7%d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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