Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 May 2026, 17:14 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

In reply to · 29 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · context given to the AI

It is genuinely hilarious how many Saylor haters and MSTR bears can't do this simple math LMAO: https://t.co/0u0sTFiaMt

@AdamBLiv Yes, but the dividend obligation keeps growing and Bitcoin's price will likely keep falling over time, especially when MSTR has to sell.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $73,867 at 29 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $73,911 at 30 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 73910.79 / 73866.93 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@AdamBLiv Yes, but the dividend obligation keeps growing and Bitcoin's price will likely keep falling over time, especially when MSTR has to sell.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3